Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x2229…9b65 other 1211 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1207W / 4L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$8
sports 47% +$17
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 382 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1058 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 1211 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 0% -9.2%
10% -16.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1207 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1211 / 1211
History coverage116d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1211 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Taha Abdi Ali: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Firas Chaouat: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cole Smith lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Mortadha Ben Ouanes: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Besfort Zeneli: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alejandro Osuna: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Pedro Vite: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Tijjani Reijnders: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Antonisse: 4+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 3 - 2 CD Limache? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leo Team (-3.5) vs SPARTA (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Josué Casimir: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Alessandro Circati: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chris Rock attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Arda Güler: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Julian Champagnie lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ché Adams: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Don Deedson Louicius: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
CD Cobresal to score first vs. CSD Colo-Colo? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Chadi Riad: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Alex Sandro: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Noah Okafor: 2+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Nico Elvedi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Jassem Gaber: 1+ assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Taha Abdi Ali: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Firas Chaouat: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Mortadha Ben Ouanes: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Besfort Zeneli: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Cole Smith lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Alejandro Osuna: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 5h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 99¢ $5 6h
Pedro Vite: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Tijjani Reijnders: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 9h
Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Jeremy Antonisse: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 11h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 12h
Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: CD Concepción 3 - 2 CD Limache? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2752 history records