Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
22 0x2227…ec59 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$636 (-5%) realized −$634 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%61W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$100
crypto 30% −$556
other 3% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -91.2% -92.1% 0% 0% -93.0%
≤30d 6 -74.2% -76.7% 17% 17% -65.0%
≤90d 6 -74.2% -76.7% 17% 17% -65.0%
all 123 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 40% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 40% -14.2%
10% -27.9% 28% -22.4%
15% -34.9% 24% -29.9%
20% -41.2% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$634
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses61 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage261d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 42¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$8 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 −$7 -60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $26 +$3 +11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Dec 13 $863 −$367 -42%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Dec 13 $216 +$51 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 13 $257 +$47 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 13 $179 −$3 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 12 $291 −$283 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 12 $211 −$182 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Dec 12 $100 +$69 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 12 $100 +$83 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 11AM ET Dec 12 $63 +$43 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 12 $60 +$48 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 12 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Dec 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Dec 12 $46 +$154 +335%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Dec 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Dec 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Nov 11 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Nov 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 10 $100 +$60 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 09 $100 +$86 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 09 $300 −$8 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 09 $200 −$30 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 09 $100 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Nov 09 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $30 +$6 +20%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $76 +$30 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Nov 06 $100 +$77 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Nov 05 $20 +$10 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 05 $7 +$3 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Nov 05 $805 +$24 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Nov 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Nov 05 $20 +$21 +103%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs TheMongolz (BO3) Nov 05 $36 +$6 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $51 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $4 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $29 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) BUY Dplus KIA 59¢ $53 185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) BUY Dplus KIA 70¢ $12 185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) BUY Dplus KIA 70¢ $233 185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) BUY Dplus KIA 70¢ $23 185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) BUY Dplus KIA 70¢ $140 185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) BUY Dplus KIA 70¢ $221 185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) SELL Dplus KIA 76¢ $496 185d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) BUY Dplus KIA 39¢ $104 185d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $267 185d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $216 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $85 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $25 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $23 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $26 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $179 185d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $61 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.50 · official $54.50 (match) · 462 history records