Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x2227…b572
politics · 266 markets active 52d ago
1.0score
+$117,092 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$117,018 · open +$74
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,173
Realized+$117,018
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses197 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)261 / 266
History coverage324d
Avg bet$2,143
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 6 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $502 $632 +$130 (+26%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 56¢ $575 $478 −$97 (-17%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $204 $220 +$16 (+8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $195 $199 +$5 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 82¢ 90¢ $182 $199 +$17 (+9%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $184 $189 +$5 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? No 85¢ 100¢ $110 $129 +$19 (+18%)
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? No 92¢ 100¢ $117 $127 +$10 (+9%)
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? No 20¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Finland 22¢ 0¢ $188 $0 −$188 (-100%)
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? No 3¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
BitBoy convicted? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics? No 10¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BitBoy convicted? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -77%
Will Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $129 −$129 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 12 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air? Feb 12 $215 +$46 +21%
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most medals at the 2026 Winte Feb 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Utah vs. Rangers Jan 26 $96 +$104 +108%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jan 19 $110 +$19 +18%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 16 $104 −$41 -39%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 01 $921 −$102 -11%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 01 $1,141 −$101 -9%
Is Jeffrey Epstein alive? Jan 01 $20 $0 +2%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $28 +$16 +56%
Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run in 2025? Jan 01 $48 +$3 +6%
Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025? Jan 01 $53 +$2 +4%
Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X? Jan 01 $237 +$3 +1%
Bezos divorce in 2025? Jan 01 $96 +$5 +5%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 01 $830 +$1,261 +152%
California redistricting referendum passes? Jan 01 $1,352 +$144 +11%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Dec 31 $50 +$380 +756%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 31 $52 −$52 -100%
America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025? Nov 27 $398 +$28 +7%
Will the next UK election be called by December 31? Nov 16 $767 +$22 +3%
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked in 2025? Nov 15 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 15 $89 +$29 +32%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Nov 15 $444 +$4 +1%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%? Nov 15 $1,008 +$102 +10%
US recession in 2025? Nov 15 $3,983 +$2,450 +62%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 15 $1,720 +$110 +6%
Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025? Nov 15 $969 +$112 +12%
Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31? Nov 15 $2,089 +$69 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 15 $1,270 −$25 -2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Nov 15 $2,209 +$33 +2%
Macron out in 2025? Nov 15 $1,393 +$81 +6%
Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31? Nov 15 $1,655 +$18 +1%
Starmer out in 2025? Nov 15 $1,820 +$40 +2%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? Nov 15 $1,139 +$2 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 15 $2,020 +$18 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Nov 15 $10,226 +$517 +5%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Nov 15 $2,240 +$135 +6%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 12 $940 +$39 +4%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%? Nov 12 $167 +$65 +39%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 12 $870 +$130 +15%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 12 $19,493 +$1,715 +9%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%? Oct 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1? Oct 22 $170 −$89 -52%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 15 $5,825 +$727 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 35% +$68,498
other 28% +$13,143
world 20% +$6,490
economics 8% +$16,570
crypto 5% +$323
culture 2% +$2,514
tech 1% +$677
sports 1% +$8,884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $89 51d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $182 65d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $204 65d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 68¢ $575 65d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $195 65d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $83 65d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $184 65d
Will Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 3¢ $2 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 23¢ $46 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 23¢ $6 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 23¢ $6 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 23¢ $12 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 23¢ $3 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $8 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $18 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $16 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $20 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $4 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $20 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $1 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $1 111d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 21¢ $28 111d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 3¢ $61 117d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 3¢ $69 117d
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 121d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 20¢ $228 121d
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most medals at the 2026 Winte BUY No 10¢ $13 121d
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air? BUY Yes 79¢ $38 128d
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air? BUY Yes 79¢ $78 128d
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air? BUY Yes 87¢ $99 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 261 +59.1% +43.9% 75% 41% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.9% 41% +8.9%
10% ← realistic here +30.2% 29% -1.5%
15% +17.6% 22% -11.0%
20% +6.0% 19% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,173.17 · official $2,173.25 (match) · 3500 history records