Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2221…94d9 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-14%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$28
other 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +23.4% +11.6% 29% 29% -33.9%
≤30d 56 -12.2% -20.6% 21% 21% -36.5%
≤90d 56 -12.2% -20.6% 21% 21% -36.5%
all 56 -12.2% -20.6% 21% 21% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 21% -36.5%
10% -28.2% 21% -42.6%
15% -35.1% 21% -48.1%
20% -41.5% 20% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$9 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 26 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 26 $1 +$6 +593%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $3 +$9 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 26 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $2 +$4 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records