Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
22 0x2221…6a1b other 27 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$112 (+20%) realized +$111 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$53
sports 7% +$46
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +20.1% +8.6% 62% 54% +10.6%
≤30d 24 +20.1% +8.6% 62% 54% +10.6%
≤90d 24 +20.1% +8.6% 62% 54% +10.6%
all 24 +20.1% +8.6% 62% 54% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 54% +10.6%
10% -1.8% 50% +0.0%
15% -11.3% 50% -9.6%
20% -20.0% 38% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$16 +107%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $98 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 29h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.89 · official $80.89 (match) · 52 history records