Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x221b…2cb1
crypto · 1312 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$776 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$776 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$776
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses682 / 629
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1311 / 1312
History coverage24d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day86.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$2,161
14 days−$1,190
30 days−$776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 55¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$7 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$776
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $17 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 528 -10.1% -18.6% 47% 47% -46.5%
≤30d 1311 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 52% -12.9%
≤90d 1311 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 52% -12.9%
all 1311 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 52% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 52% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 51% -21.2%
15% -27.2% 49% -28.8%
20% -34.4% 48% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.32 · official $1.17 (match) · 3500 history records