Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2218…77d7 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$7
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -15.1%
≤30d 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -15.1%
≤90d 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -15.1%
all 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 0% -15.1%
10% -61.2% 0% -23.2%
15% -65.0% 0% -30.6%
20% -68.4% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)2 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $102 −$5 -5%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $97 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 4h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 12h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.59 · official $338.60 (match) · 13 history records