Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2217…ef22 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-15%) realized −$64 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$5
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$67
sports 36% +$28
crypto 18% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -43.4% -48.8% 25% 25% -16.7%
≤30d 9 +30.1% +17.7% 44% 44% +10.8%
≤90d 34 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 38% -27.5%
all 34 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 38% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 38% -27.5%
10% -38.5% 35% -34.4%
15% -44.4% 32% -40.7%
20% -49.9% 24% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage61d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $35 −$10 -28%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$22 +436%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $17 +$17 +100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$11 +107%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-16? May 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 09 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 06 $25 +$5 +20%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $18 +$11 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-05? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $24 21m
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $25 42m
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $34 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $17 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $4 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 17¢ $4 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 13¢ $7 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $5 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $21 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $10 10d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY No 19¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 49d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 49d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.23 · official $30.23 (match) · 64 history records