Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2217…4524 politics 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$17
other 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 76 -1.7% -11.0% 4% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage638d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? Dec 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Bears make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bam Adebayo win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
GOP wins popular vote by 1.5-1.75%? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Phil Murphy be the next DNC chair? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will inflation increase by 2.5% or less in November? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Biden resign in November? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Siversk before December? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 21d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 34d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 41d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 51d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 51d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 56d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 57d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 72d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 72d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 77d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 78d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 92d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 94d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 104d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 104d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 106d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 106d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 108d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 108d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 111d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 111d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 116d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records