Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x220d…1b48 weather 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-16%) realized −$4 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% −$10
other 17% +$4
sports 8% +$1
world 5% −$1
tech 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -26.5% -33.5% 41% 41% -24.6%
≤30d 27 -26.5% -33.5% 41% 41% -24.6%
≤90d 27 -26.5% -33.5% 41% 41% -24.6%
all 27 -26.5% -33.5% 41% 41% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 41% -24.6%
10% -39.8% 41% -31.8%
15% -45.6% 37% -38.4%
20% -51.0% 26% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)27 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +177%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 45h
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes $1 45h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes $1 45h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.11 · official $5.11 (match) · 50 history records