Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x220c…8853 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$213 (-0%) realized −$241 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate55%71W / 59L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$2,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$27
14 days−$2
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$123
crypto 16% +$9
finance 6% +$5
sports 3% −$475
world 1% +$2
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -70.1% -73.0% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -39.4% -45.2% 49% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 130 -31.3% -37.9% 55% 8% -10.5%
all 130 -31.3% -37.9% 55% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 8% -10.5%
10% -43.8% 7% -19.1%
15% -49.2% 3% -26.9%
20% -54.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2,159
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses71 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions52
Markets (closed)130 / 119
History coverage62d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,333 $1,335 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $582 $576 −$6 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+40%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+47%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-20%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 89¢ 86¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+725%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+671%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$11 (+640%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+383%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+137%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $694 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2,984 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1,020 +$17 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,988 +$21 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $762 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $995 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $883 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,896 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $793 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,098 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $697 +$3 +0%
Will Graham Platner win less than 65% of votes in the Maine Senate Dem Jun 10 $16 +$4 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $897 +$1 +0%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 10 $6 +$1 +27%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $33 −$7 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $896 +$2 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $895 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $842 +$24 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $896 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $583 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $698 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $694 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,333 16h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,843 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,992 30h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $171 30h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $825 30h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 43h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $992 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,020 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $771 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $157 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $625 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $367 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $981 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $179 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $710 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,158.83 · official $2,158.84 (match) · 499 history records