Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
22 0x220b…a5cb crypto 88 markets active 9h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%83W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$3
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +1.5% -8.2% 95% 7% -9.1%
≤30d 87 +1.5% -8.2% 95% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 87 +1.5% -8.2% 95% 7% -9.1%
all 87 +1.5% -8.2% 95% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 7% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 5% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 5% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses83 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 96¢ 98¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.07 · official $22.07 (match) · 246 history records