Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x2203…b085 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate67%48W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$7
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$14
other 46% −$8
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.8% -7.9% 65% 63% -4.7%
≤30d 72 -1.9% -11.2% 67% 64% -7.7%
≤90d 72 -1.9% -11.2% 67% 64% -7.7%
all 72 -1.9% -11.2% 67% 64% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 64% -7.7%
10% -19.7% 46% -16.5%
15% -27.5% 29% -24.6%
20% -34.6% 24% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses48 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)72 / 81
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 60¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +75%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $15 +$5 +35%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$3 +149%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $2 +$2 +99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $5 +$5 +91%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 8h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 18h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 75¢ $2 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $2 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY ONIC 77¢ $5 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 86¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 88¢ $2 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 26¢ $3 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 19¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 64¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 60¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $2 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - BUY Geek Fam ID 37¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 62¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 55¢ $2 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.91 · official $23.92 (match) · 132 history records