trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 90¢ | $84,334 | $92,110 | +$7,776 (+9%) |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | $37,800 | $40,500 | +$2,700 (+7%) |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 95¢ | $15,239 | $16,265 | +$1,026 (+7%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | $12,341 | $13,916 | +$1,575 (+13%) |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $12,997 | $12,859 | −$138 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | $11,791 | $12,169 | +$379 (+3%) |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | No | 68¢ | 94¢ | $2,710 | $3,751 | +$1,042 (+38%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 28¢ | 18¢ | $5,420 | $3,637 | −$1,782 (-33%) |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 4¢ | $353 | $47 | −$306 (-87%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Timberwolves | 20¢ | 0¢ | $6,442 | $0 | −$6,442 (-100%) |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $2,530 | $0 | −$2,530 (-100%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $3,677 | $0 | −$3,677 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Spurs | 33¢ | 0¢ | $4,950 | $0 | −$4,950 (-100%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $693 | $0 | −$693 (-100%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $428 | $0 | −$428 (-100%) |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $3,226 | $0 | −$3,226 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $5,049 | −$4,950 | -98% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 18 | $687 | +$477 | +70% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 09 | $20,300 | +$19,700 | +97% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 27 | $21,700 | +$12,901 | +60% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 27 | $6,600 | −$6,442 | -98% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 27 | $8,901 | +$10,050 | +113% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 08 | $2,530 | −$2,530 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Apr 08 | $3,226 | −$3,226 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Apr 05 | $693 | −$693 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Mar 23 | $428 | −$428 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Mar 23 | $3,677 | −$3,677 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -15.3% | -23.3% | 50% | 50% | -81.3% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -32.8% | -39.2% | 36% | 36% | +16.5% |
| all | 11 | -32.8% | -39.2% | 36% | 36% | +16.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -39.2% | 36% | +16.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -45.0% | 36% | +5.4% |
| 15% | -50.4% | 36% | -4.8% |
| 20% | -55.2% | 36% | -14.1% |