Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21ff…0d71
other · 440 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$12,043 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,754 · open −$11,048
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$139,467
Realized+$2,754
Unrealized−$11,048
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses141 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions481
Markets (closed)211 / 440
History coverage1d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day3425.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 481 History 211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,754
7 days+$2,754
14 days+$2,754
30 days+$2,754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,903 $1,903 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 76¢ 72¢ $1,865 $1,759 −$107 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 54¢ $1,719 $1,720 +$0 (+0%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 74¢ 66¢ $1,874 $1,675 −$200 (-11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 73¢ 74¢ $1,538 $1,552 +$14 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,528 $1,530 +$2 (+0%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,543 $1,525 −$17 (-1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 78¢ 74¢ $1,607 $1,508 −$99 (-6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 86¢ $1,369 $1,422 +$53 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 56¢ 50¢ $1,576 $1,395 −$181 (-11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $1,258 $1,283 +$25 (+2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $1,371 $1,190 −$181 (-13%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,137 $1,168 +$31 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $1,155 $1,074 −$81 (-7%)
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 97¢ $972 $970 −$2 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 78¢ 77¢ $909 $902 −$7 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,031 $891 −$141 (-14%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $883 $883 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $878 $870 −$8 (-1%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 84¢ 77¢ $946 $866 −$80 (-8%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $866 $866 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 42¢ 44¢ $797 $823 +$26 (+3%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 66¢ 64¢ $834 $803 −$31 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 67¢ $793 $793 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $787 $770 −$17 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $216 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $387 −$20 -5%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 12 $208 +$16 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 12 $24 −$4 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 12 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$43 -44%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $197 +$157 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $394 +$2 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? Jun 12 $114 −$5 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $90 +$84 +93%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +235%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $54 +$62 +114%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $115 −$7 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 $0 +1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $28 −$14 -51%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $84 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $142 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $320 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $219 +$65 +30%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $622 −$65 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $92 −$88 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will a player representing South Korea be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $195 −$38 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $139 +$1 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $492 −$78 -16%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $457 +$1 +0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $198 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $928 +$25 +3%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 12 $190 +$195 +103%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $576 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $42 −$15 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $255 −$33 -13%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $45 −$22 -50%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$9,438
world 10% +$1,507
weather 6% +$42
sports 6% −$326
politics 2% −$487
finance 2% +$47
economics 2% +$579
crypto 1% −$150
tech 0% −$69
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $27 0m
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $10 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $14 0m
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 0m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 97¢ $65 0m
Will Norway be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $34 0m
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 0m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 69¢ $13 0m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 0m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 1m
Blue tsunami in 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 1m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $0 1m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 96¢ $79 1m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 96¢ $96 1m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 96¢ $15 1m
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $23 1m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 1m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 2m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 97¢ $32 2m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 84¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 2m
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3m
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $10 3m
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 3m
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $2 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 21% -2.7%
≤30d 211 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 21% -2.7%
≤90d 211 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 21% -2.7%
all 211 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 21% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3425.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.0% 21% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here +19.4% 18% -12.0%
15% +7.9% 15% -20.5%
20% -2.7% 15% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139,466.63 · official $179,727.18 · 3500 history records