Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21ff…5e2a sports 544 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,480 (+1%) realized +$4,634 · open +$846
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%242W / 311L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,715per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$885est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$17,651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 141d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$13,316
economics 25% +$297,408
sports 16% +$17,598
crypto 12% +$27,410
tech 8% +$8,356
politics 6% −$2,654
world 2% +$9,128
finance 2% +$6,298
culture 0% +$2,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+69.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +3.1% -6.7% 11% 7% -83.4%
≤30d 118 +28.0% +15.8% 24% 13% -60.8%
≤90d 421 +67.2% +51.3% 44% 25% -11.2%
all 553 +87.3% +69.5% 44% 26% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.5% 26% +22.8%
10% +53.3% 22% +11.0%
15% ← realistic here +38.4% 20% +0.3%
20% +24.9% 18% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$646) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +134% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,847 vs −$365 · ×5.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$17,651
Realized+$4,634
Unrealized+$846
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses242 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$885
Open positions62
Markets (closed)553 / 544
History coverage141d ⚠
Avg bet$1,715
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 553 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $5,508 $5,603 +$95 (+2%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $2,339 $2,351 +$12 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $1,667 $1,824 +$157 (+9%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,641 $1,667 +$27 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,194 $1,203 +$9 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 93¢ 96¢ $712 $740 +$28 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $321 $709 +$388 (+121%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $449 $577 +$128 (+29%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 80¢ $566 $506 −$60 (-11%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $217 $214 −$4 (-2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 77¢ 89¢ $176 $202 +$26 (+15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $189 $189 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 in June? No 81¢ 99¢ $132 $160 +$28 (+21%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 52¢ 34¢ $234 $151 −$82 (-35%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Yes 28¢ 69¢ $55 $136 +$81 (+146%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 79¢ $145 $126 −$19 (-13%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $112 $122 +$10 (+9%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 82¢ 88¢ $109 $115 +$7 (+6%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 in June? No 62¢ 98¢ $62 $98 +$36 (+59%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 12¢ 34¢ $32 $92 +$60 (+184%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $76 $79 +$4 (+5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $111 $78 −$33 (-29%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 9¢ 5¢ $122 $69 −$53 (-43%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $7 $57 +$50 (+758%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 311 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 17 $9,355 −$9,685 -104%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $1 +$482 +70471%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 17 $664 −$664 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Jun 17 $7 +$165 +2464%
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? Jun 17 $1,047 −$1,047 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jun 17 $5,353 −$5,353 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 8? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets Jun 17 $2,121 −$2,121 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jun 17 $2,538 −$2,538 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Chromakopia (Tyler the Creator) win Album of the Year at the 68th Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons Jun 17 $13,052 −$13,052 -100%
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 17 $128 −$145 -113%
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January? Jun 17 $3,226 −$3,226 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Spirit Academy (BO3) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$77.5 in January? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jun 17 $35 −$38 -108%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in January 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 17 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 17 $567 −$656 -116%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 17 $246 −$245 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $639 −$639 -100%
Will KATSEYE win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will DeepSeek win the okbet trading competition? Jun 17 $15 +$74 +509%
Will The Subway (Chappell Roan) win Record of the Year at the 68th Ann Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jun 17 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $285 −$285 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Jun 17 $2,474 −$2,474 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 38m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 39m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $11 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $22 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 1¢ $14 3h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 3¢ $22 3h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $568 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 3¢ $76 4h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $487 5h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 5h
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY No 1¢ $8 5h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 5h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $3,523 5h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $79 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,388 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,703 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $87 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $469 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1,359 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $430 3d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,504 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,651.09 · official $17,651.32 (match) · 3500 history records