Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
21 0x21fe…da90 politics 427 markets active 1h ago coverage 570d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 569d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$18,812 (+6%) realized +$17,667 · open +$1,145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%240W / 139L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$10,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$152
14 days−$154
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% +$6,563
other 21% +$4,679
crypto 18% +$8,209
world 16% +$3,448
tech 11% +$881
culture 4% +$1,170
economics 2% −$274
sports 1% −$238
finance 1% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -39.6% -45.3% 33% 33% -36.8%
≤30d 12 -36.8% -42.8% 33% 33% -26.1%
≤90d 76 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 26% -3.8%
all 379 +11.9% +1.2% 63% 34% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 34% -5.4%
10% -8.4% 22% -14.4%
15% -17.3% 15% -22.7%
20% -25.4% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$95 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$10,587
Realized+$17,667
Unrealized+$1,145
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses240 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions48
Markets (closed)379 / 427
History coverage570d ⚠
Avg bet$729
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 92¢ $923 $1,127 +$204 (+22%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $1,043 $1,017 −$26 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 46¢ 67¢ $593 $866 +$273 (+46%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $691 $797 +$105 (+15%)
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? No 81¢ 95¢ $565 $666 +$101 (+18%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $513 $520 +$7 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $455 $467 +$12 (+3%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $487 $465 −$22 (-4%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $310 $425 +$115 (+37%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $381 $416 +$34 (+9%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 70¢ 60¢ $472 $401 −$71 (-15%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $350 $328 −$22 (-6%)
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? No 78¢ 96¢ $239 $296 +$57 (+24%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $236 $258 +$22 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $240 $237 −$3 (-1%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 75¢ 78¢ $224 $233 +$9 (+4%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $174 $198 +$24 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 99¢ $191 $197 +$6 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 76¢ 97¢ $152 $193 +$41 (+27%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 74¢ $34 $185 +$151 (+441%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $161 $184 +$24 (+15%)
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $144 $159 +$15 (+10%)
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $147 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $90 $99 +$9 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $66 +$15 +23%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $140 −$2 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$21 -46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $14 +$8 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $78 −$2 -2%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 02 $226 +$38 +17%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $385 +$60 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $860 +$1,140 +133%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $308 −$308 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $502 −$42 -8%
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? Apr 13 $308 −$87 -28%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Apr 13 $464 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 13 $543 +$47 +9%
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Apr 13 $398 +$8 +2%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 13 $800 +$50 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 13 $198 +$49 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 13 $706 +$216 +30%
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Apr 13 $670 +$250 +37%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 13 $473 +$17 +4%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $612 +$29 +5%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $347 +$6 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $2,458 +$264 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $2,279 +$338 +15%
Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026? Apr 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $2,686 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $4 −$2 -64%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026? Apr 12 $45 −$6 -13%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $60 −$58 -97%
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026? Apr 11 $2 +$26 +1100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026? Apr 10 $19 +$4 +19%
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $16 +$3 +21%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $2,134 +$9 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 06 $661 +$53 +8%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $53 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $163 +$37 +23%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $207 +$58 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $138 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $140 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $81 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY No 64¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 86¢ $85 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 77¢ $77 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $32 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $165 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 7d
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? SELL Yes 95¢ $188 8d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $29 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $23 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $2 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $51 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 38¢ $78 11d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $0 12d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $5 12d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $7 13d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $2 13d
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 14d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 91¢ $18 14d
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate SELL Yes 74¢ $260 15d
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate SELL Yes 75¢ $4 15d
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $223 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,587.15 · official $10,587.15 (match) · 3500 history records