Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21fb…842c
weather · 880 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$519 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$469 · open −$50
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$173
Realized−$469
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses308 / 488
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions84
Markets (closed)796 / 880
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 84 History 796 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$139
14 days−$552
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 21¢ 41¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? No 66¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 39¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? No 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? No 67¢ 65¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 54¢ 38¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$9 +268%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$8 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$12 +372%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$20 +665%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$16 +564%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$9 +266%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +423%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$9 +267%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$17 +274%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +267%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$6 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$10 +450%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$6 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$27 +370%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 61% −$433
crypto 38% −$79
sports 0% −$1
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +24.0% +12.2% 54% 40% +8.3%
≤30d 796 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 33% -17.8%
≤90d 796 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 33% -17.8%
all 796 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 33% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 30% -25.6%
15% -36.3% 28% -32.8%
20% -42.5% 26% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.74 · official $171.98 (match) · 3500 history records