Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21fb…60ac crypto 588 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,127 (+16%) realized +$2,126 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%298W / 289L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$479
7 days+$479
14 days+$479
30 days+$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,930
other 1% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 45% +1.2%
≤30d 49 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 45% +1.2%
≤90d 291 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 50% +2.4%
all 587 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 50% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 50% +3.5%
10% -22.3% 49% -6.4%
15% -29.8% 47% -15.5%
20% -36.7% 44% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$2,126
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses298 / 289
Open positions1
Markets (closed)587 / 588
History coverage98d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 50¢ 55¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$6 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$12 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $44 +$26 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $98 +$77 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$43 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$18 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$15 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$28 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$14 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$11 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $1,522 +$1,149 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $569 −$550 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $110 −$79 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $221 −$214 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$6 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$12 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $569 +$498 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $221 −$214 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$92 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$2 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $47 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $44 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.72 · official $8.72 (match) · 1128 history records