Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21fa…04ba other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$24
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$33
sports 26% −$70
crypto 26% +$8
politics 5% +$1
weather 3% −$2
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 40% -13.7%
≤30d 16 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 31% -14.7%
≤90d 16 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 31% -14.7%
all 16 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 31% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 31% -14.7%
10% -26.8% 31% -22.8%
15% -33.8% 25% -30.3%
20% -40.3% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage9d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 79¢ 70¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $154 −$65 -42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $111 +$3 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +88%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$10 +196%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $49 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $40 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 15¢ $20 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 73¢ $101 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 34¢ $21 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $13 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $108 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.70 · official $55.70 (match) · 52 history records