Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x21f8…072e politics 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$13
politics 38% −$15
sports 8% +$44
tech 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +0.7% -8.9% 7% 4% -9.5%
all 121 +0.5% -9.0% 11% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage115d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $489 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $307 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $410 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $245 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $652 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $275 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $229 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $267 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $260 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $217 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $272 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $197 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $280 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $242 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $259 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $259 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 29 $259 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $279 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 12h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 12h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 16h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 16h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 23h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 32h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 42h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 42h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 375 history records