Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21f7…1b34 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,941 (-30%) realized −$1,455 · open −$486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$2,533
other 38% +$51
crypto 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.3% -6.5% 35% 35% -45.2%
≤30d 20 +3.3% -6.5% 35% 35% -45.2%
≤90d 20 +3.3% -6.5% 35% 35% -45.2%
all 20 +3.3% -6.5% 35% 35% -45.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 35% -45.2%
10% -15.5% 35% -50.5%
15% -23.6% 30% -55.2%
20% -31.1% 30% -59.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$285 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$889
Realized−$1,455
Unrealized−$486
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $600 $594 −$6 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 22¢ $299 $117 −$182 (-61%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 18¢ $190 $88 −$102 (-54%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $106 −$103 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $397 −$392 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $93 −$91 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $235 −$230 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$29 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 +$142 +139%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $91 +$266 +291%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $75 +$446 +596%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$378 +93%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $179 +$296 +165%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $308 −$302 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $326 +$181 +55%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $497 −$488 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 11m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $609 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $303 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $193 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $196 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $106 25h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 39¢ $305 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $397 37h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $93 37h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $235 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $507 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $133 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 38h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $244 40h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $357 40h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $521 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $784 40h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 14¢ $75 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 41h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $475 41h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $91 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $406 42h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $179 42h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $308 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $100 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $102 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $507 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $326 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.16 · official $904.52 · 32 history records