Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21f7…e19f world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,624 (-5%) realized −$2,866 · open −$758
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%31W / 47L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$901per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$859
14 days−$859
30 days−$8,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$969
finance 34% −$1,891
other 9% +$1,916
crypto 6% −$4,271
politics 2% −$578
economics 0% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -61.6% -65.3% 0% 0% -30.7%
≤30d 24 -51.4% -56.0% 21% 21% -51.0%
≤90d 68 -32.2% -38.7% 40% 34% -10.0%
all 78 -28.7% -35.5% 40% 32% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 32% -13.4%
10% -41.7% 24% -21.7%
15% -47.3% 14% -29.3%
20% -52.5% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$989) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$431 vs −$353 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized−$2,866
Unrealized−$758
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses31 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)78 / 84
History coverage140d
Avg bet$901
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 48¢ $178 $190 +$12 (+7%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $183 $139 −$44 (-24%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $594 $113 −$481 (-81%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $120 $50 −$70 (-58%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $107 $48 −$59 (-55%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $125 $9 −$116 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $3,654 −$849 -23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $592 −$68 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 29 $243 −$228 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $350 −$19 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $16 +$16 +100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $422 +$293 +69%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $768 −$768 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $3,207 −$3,186 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $170 −$48 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $134 −$130 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 22 $2,630 +$469 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 21 $1,888 −$1,600 -85%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 21 $3,256 −$810 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 21 $1,055 −$989 -94%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 20 $46 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $328 −$320 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 14 $280 +$90 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 14 $435 +$120 +28%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,594 +$216 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 12 $2,210 +$477 +22%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $119 −$117 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 12 $560 +$190 +34%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $1,184 −$68 -6%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 07 $7,270 +$1,456 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin above 82,000 on May 7, 11AM ET? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 07 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $105 −$78 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 07 $515 −$508 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 06 $289 −$270 -94%
Will Solana reach $100 on May 6? May 06 $2 −$2 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 05 $117 −$117 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 04 $2,393 +$11 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $666 +$166 +25%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $79 +$43 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $88 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $25 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $65 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $110 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $850 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $167 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 53¢ $23 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $6 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $6 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $6 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $10 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.48 · official $548.48 (match) · 723 history records