Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21f5…cd3b other 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-9%) realized −$63 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$11
sports 45% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 38% -19.9%
≤30d 47 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 38% -19.9%
≤90d 47 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 38% -19.9%
all 47 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 38% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 38% -19.9%
10% -31.0% 36% -27.5%
15% -37.7% 28% -34.5%
20% -43.8% 26% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)47 / 66
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 80¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 87¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 84¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Under 34¢ 58¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 37¢ 62¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Under 50¢ 79¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 9¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13 +$4 +35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $7 +$5 +66%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$8 +162%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 +$12 +234%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $15 +$8 +53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $23 +$11 +49%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$16 +89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 Jun 12 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -11%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$5 +89%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 11 $13 +$13 +99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $6 +$8 +137%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $3 14m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 15m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 16m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 34¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $10 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $12 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 45h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $5 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $7 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $7 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $8 47h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $13 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 20¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.74 · official $80.12 (match) · 103 history records