Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
21 0x21f5…c161 sports 923 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36,406 (+8%) realized +$37,787 · open −$1,381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%385W / 534L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$4,082est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,463
7 days−$4,822
14 days+$1,627
30 days+$12,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$19,670
other 28% +$9,686
finance 5% +$3,267
crypto 3% −$2,671
world 2% −$318
culture 1% +$10
politics 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -39.7% -45.5% 23% 23% -17.8%
≤30d 231 -8.9% -17.5% 40% 40% -2.9%
≤90d 760 -2.3% -11.6% 41% 40% -3.6%
all 919 -3.7% -12.8% 42% 40% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 40% -3.0%
10% -21.2% 39% -12.3%
15% -28.8% 36% -20.8%
20% -35.8% 34% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$600) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$582 vs −$362 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,350
Realized+$37,787
Unrealized−$1,381
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses385 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$4,082
Open positions4
Markets (closed)919 / 923
History coverage114d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 58¢ 51¢ $1,484 $1,302 −$183 (-12%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 24¢ $47 $38 −$8 (-18%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1,100 $10 −$1,090 (-99%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,397 +$1,251 +90%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4,992 +$4,675 +94%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,496 −$1,463 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $1,450 −$1,427 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,194 −$1,166 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $901 −$44 -5%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,607 −$1,580 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $811 +$708 +87%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $915 −$900 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $1,032 −$21 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $842 −$55 -6%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $1,146 −$1,130 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $113 −$111 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Yokohama F·Marinos leading at halftime? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5) Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $504 −$504 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $406 −$406 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Ehime FC (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ehime FC vs. Roasso Kumamoto: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $506 −$506 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $627 −$627 -100%
Spread: Ehime FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $144 −$144 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 Jun 13 $508 −$508 -100%
FC Tōkyō leading at halftime? Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 13 $809 −$809 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 13 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 13 $397 −$397 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 13 $862 −$862 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 13 $409 −$409 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Liaoning Tieren FC leading at halftime? Jun 13 $805 −$805 -100%
EC Juventude vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $999 −$999 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $816 −$816 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 13 $1,497 −$1,497 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $1,832 −$1,832 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $102 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $48 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,397 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $4,460 7h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $4,992 8h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 26¢ $1,496 39h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $1,503 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 53¢ $433 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 46¢ $1,016 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,194 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $278 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $301 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $145 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $30 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $103 3d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,607 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,520 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 37¢ $408 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 50¢ $508 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,011 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $811 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $787 3d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $1,146 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL 0¢ $0 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1,402 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,350.29 · official $1,346.59 (match) · 2532 history records