Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21f4…81a6 world 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13,753 (-16%) realized −$13,277 · open −$476
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 49L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,312per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$1,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$15,202
politics 6% −$15
other 6% −$1,465
weather 0% −$107
tech 0% −$200
crypto 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -68.6% -71.6% 9% 9% -48.2%
≤90d 38 -20.0% -27.6% 8% 5% -60.1%
all 64 -14.9% -23.0% 23% 17% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 17% -26.2%
10% -30.4% 14% -33.2%
15% -37.1% 11% -39.7%
20% -43.3% 8% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,050) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$931 vs −$623 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$2,088
Realized−$13,277
Unrealized−$476
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,312
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2,026 $2,082 +$56 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 13¢ 0¢ $538 $6 −$532 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $53 −$52 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $79 −$79 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $780 −$750 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $963 −$551 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26? May 25 $90 −$90 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 25 $33 −$7 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $121 −$121 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $847 +$849 +100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $1,248 −$832 -67%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $983 +$35 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,792 −$83 -5%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $105 −$48 -46%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $105 −$36 -34%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $911 −$123 -14%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $105 −$5 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 07 $45 −$45 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 7? May 07 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7? May 07 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? May 04 $10 +$297 +2937%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1? May 01 $17 −$17 -98%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 24? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $1,048 −$1,048 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $1,562 −$60 -4%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Apr 07 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 12 $2,414 −$1,865 -77%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $4,030 −$4,009 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $3,000 −$516 -17%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10,104 −$1,975 -20%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $2,000 +$5,308 +265%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 27 $1,389 +$1,737 +125%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 07 $1,295 −$1,295 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $9,582 −$7,576 -79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 06 $9 −$9 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $5,600 −$2,911 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,026 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $518 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,755 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $809 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $549 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $60 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $48 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $99 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $105 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 22d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26? BUY Yes 4¢ $90 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $96 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,088.33 · official $2,088.33 (match) · 612 history records