Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21f3…35e3
sports · 616 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$137,160 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$137,118 · open +$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54,856
Realized+$137,118
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses290 / 474
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$18,227
Open positions34
Markets (closed)764 / 616
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,895
Trades / day168.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 34 History 764 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$395,858
7 days−$302,290
14 days−$2,755
30 days+$137,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $24,814 $24,563 −$252 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $6,952 $6,889 −$63 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 39¢ 42¢ $5,821 $6,125 +$303 (+5%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ 48¢ $3,920 $3,961 +$41 (+1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 49¢ 50¢ $2,681 $2,742 +$61 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1,397 $1,411 +$14 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 42¢ $1,125 $976 −$149 (-13%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 50¢ 50¢ $854 $846 −$9 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 18¢ 20¢ $568 $600 +$32 (+6%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 63¢ 54¢ $701 $596 −$106 (-15%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $560 $566 +$6 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 44¢ $589 $558 −$31 (-5%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 43¢ 44¢ $525 $531 +$6 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 10¢ $443 $467 +$25 (+6%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 63¢ 62¢ $455 $451 −$4 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 44¢ $355 $385 +$30 (+9%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 70¢ 72¢ $372 $382 +$11 (+3%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $375 $371 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 33¢ 46¢ $221 $311 +$90 (+41%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 44¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 30¢ 50¢ $171 $284 +$114 (+67%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 23¢ 24¢ $229 $234 +$5 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 44¢ $252 $220 −$32 (-13%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Toronto Tempo 49¢ 50¢ $217 $219 +$2 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 52¢ $188 $193 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 149.5 Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5 Jun 12 $645 −$645 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Furman Paladins vs. VMI Keydets: O/U 145.5 Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Bucks vs. Clippers Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jun 12 $547 −$547 -100%
Monmouth Hawks vs. UNCW Seahawks Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Jun 12 $266 −$266 -100%
Spread: Texas Longhorns (-1.5) Jun 12 $27,618 −$27,618 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 12 $3,214 −$3,214 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 Jun 12 $5 −$4 -82%
Spread: Niagara Purple Eagles (-2.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 136.5 Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Jun 12 $1,265 −$1,265 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 12 $232 −$232 -100%
Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Jun 12 $127 −$127 -100%
Magic vs. Clippers: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 12 $323 −$323 -100%
Spread: Wyoming Cowboys (-8.5) Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Jun 12 $550 −$550 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 230.5 Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. VCU Rams Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-18.5) Jun 12 $343 −$343 -100%
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 145.5 Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 12 $371 −$371 -100%
Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -105%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-10.5) Jun 12 $1,393 −$1,393 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 12 $510 −$510 -100%
Spread: Yale Bulldogs (-5.5) Jun 12 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5 Jun 12 $190 −$190 -100%
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 143.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Charlotte 49ers vs. South Florida Bulls: O/U 153.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5 Jun 12 $415 −$415 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5) Jun 12 $295 −$295 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 154.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Jun 12 $2,585 −$2,585 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 12 $3,906 −$3,961 -101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-11.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Jun 12 $4,815 −$4,815 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$569,901
other 2% +$17,859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $16 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $0 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $0 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $0 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $0 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $0 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $0 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $0 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $29 18m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $1,416 20m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $961 20m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $2 22m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $34 22m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 70¢ $372 29m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $189 34m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $14 35m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $15 35m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $3,553 48m
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $854 52m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2,311 58m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $525 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $7,500 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7,500 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7,500 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $375 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 55¢ $4 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2,164 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2,601 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 546 -58.2% -62.2% 18% 18% -48.7%
≤30d 764 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 38% +1.1%
≤90d 764 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 38% +1.1%
all 764 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 38% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover168.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 38% +1.1%
10% -27.0% 37% -8.6%
15% ← realistic here -34.1% 36% -17.4%
20% -40.5% 34% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54,855.66 · official $54,855.41 (match) · 3500 history records