Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x21f1…ae1a crypto 1269 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$556 (-6%) realized −$556 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%679W / 589L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$613
sports 9% +$43
other 1% −$37
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 48% -10.2%
≤30d 64 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 48% -10.2%
≤90d 547 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 48% -16.0%
all 1268 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 48% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 48% -15.1%
10% -21.8% 43% -23.3%
15% -29.3% 38% -30.7%
20% -36.3% 34% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$556
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses679 / 589
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1268 / 1269
History coverage263d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$36 +119%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$18 +60%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$21 +69%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$5 +110%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $30 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$6 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -39%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$32 +105%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$2 +16%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$31 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 14h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $51 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $11 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.74 (match) · 3371 history records