Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ef…5ac7 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73 (-10%) realized −$58 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%35W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days−$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$90
crypto 13% −$3
sports 4% +$20
world 4% +$2
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +84.6% +67.0% 75% 75% +44.0%
≤30d 36 +11.3% +0.7% 42% 42% -7.2%
≤90d 99 -2.1% -11.5% 35% 35% -26.6%
all 99 -2.1% -11.5% 35% 35% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 35% -26.6%
10% -19.9% 32% -33.6%
15% -27.7% 28% -40.0%
20% -34.8% 26% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses35 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions28
Markets (closed)99 / 128
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $107 $113 +$6 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $124 $108 −$16 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $33 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+30%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+78%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-53%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 49¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 44¢ 13¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +168%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +276%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4 +$2 +52%
Exact Score: Slovenia 1 - 1 Cyprus? Jun 04 $1 +$8 +784%
Exact Score: Slovenia 2 - 1 Cyprus? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Slovenia 2 - 0 Cyprus? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Slovenia 1 - 0 Cyprus? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4 +$2 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 +$5 +165%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$4 +86%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Panama? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Panama? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Panama? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 +$4 +70%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$17 +84%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 +$8 +442%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $46 −$44 -97%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $2 $0 -22%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 0 - 3 FC Barcelona? May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 1 - 3 FC Barcelona? May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 0 - 2 FC Barcelona? May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Deportivo Alavés 2 - 0 FC Barcelona? May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 13 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 31h
Israel election: will Likud lose seats? SELL No 23¢ $3 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $4 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 7d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 7d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 7d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.64 · official $377.56 (match) · 303 history records