Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

21 0x21ef…363f sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$101per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+37.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+51.6%	+37.2%	50%	50%	+36.2%
≤30d	2	+51.6%	+37.2%	50%	50%	+36.2%
≤90d	2	+51.6%	+37.2%	50%	50%	+36.2%
all	2	+51.6%	+37.2%	50%	50%	+36.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.2%	50%	+36.2%
10%	+24.1%	50%	+23.1%
15%	+12.1%	50%	+11.2%
20%	+1.1%	50%	+0.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$103 vs −$2 · ×62.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×62.31 per $1 lost it wins $62.31

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage6d

Avg bet$101

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	53¢	54¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 29	$99	+$103	+105%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$103	−$2	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$202	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$101	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$48	2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.94 · official $100.94 (match) · 12 history records