Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ee…878e crypto 1034 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,388 (-9%) realized −$4,280 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%621W / 411L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Fees−$431est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$928
14 days−$1,644
30 days−$3,315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,763
crypto 32% −$1,256
other 2% −$274
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 47% -20.6%
≤30d 855 -7.8% -16.6% 58% 45% -17.5%
≤90d 1032 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 47% -15.2%
all 1032 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 47% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 47% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 35% -23.3%
15% -29.3% 26% -30.7%
20% -36.2% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,280
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses621 / 411
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$431
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1032 / 1034
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1032 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$16 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +54%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $128 −$84 -66%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $425 −$24 -6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$50 -50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $61 +$69 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $371 −$365 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $404 −$81 -20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$28 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $364 −$359 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 −$128 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $166 +$49 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $464 +$13 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 −$71 -24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $31 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $27 +$1 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$43 +212%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +181%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $121 +$53 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$17 +84%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 −$10 -28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $66 +$33 +51%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$12 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $110 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $220 +$101 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $80 +$20 +25%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$30 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 45m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $85 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $41 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 58m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $61 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ $48 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 17¢ $43 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 1¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 1¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $128 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 47¢ $49 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $38 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $17 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $39 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $3 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ $10 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $186 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $2 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $25 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $133 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $158 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $51 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 3500 history records