Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21ed…510a other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 712d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%54W / 2L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$2
politics 26% +$1
world 19% +$4
tech 9% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 56 -1.2% -10.7% 96% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.78 per $1 lost it wins $6.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

712d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses54 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage712d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mistral have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 20 Jun 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 24 $69 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be 3rd richest person on March 31? Apr 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 16 $213 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 07 $45 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $167 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 04 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 04 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September? Oct 07 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31? Sep 01 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jul 02 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16? May 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March? Mar 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 08 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 03 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in November? Dec 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times November 15-22? Nov 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? Nov 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Nov 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times November 1-8? Nov 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in October? Nov 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 18-25? Oct 28 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 11-18? Oct 21 $61 $0 +0%
Base airdrop by September 30? Oct 14 $40 $0 +0%
Linea airdrop by September 30? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? Sep 01 $90 $0 +0%
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? Aug 27 $90 $0 +0%
Trump posts less than 5 times on X? Aug 26 $90 $0 +0%
Trump posts 100 or more times on X? Aug 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? Aug 21 $66 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 5 times this week? Aug 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 60-69 times? Aug 13 $20 $0 +0%
China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo BUY No 99¢ $69 29d
Will Mistral have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 20 BUY No 100¢ $56 47d
Will Elon Musk be 3rd richest person on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $55 85d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? BUY No 100¢ $213 104d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $167 116d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 99¢ $45 126d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $73 126d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $55 140d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $60 151d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $42 190d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 222d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $31 225d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 269d
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31? BUY No 93¢ $29 299d
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? BUY No 98¢ $21 360d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16? BUY No 100¢ $60 404d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 422d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $52 440d
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? BUY No 98¢ $10 454d
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March? BUY No 100¢ $71 475d
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? BUY No 99¢ $19 493d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $29 500d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 517d
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY Yes $2 526d
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY No 100¢ $111 528d
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? BUY No 100¢ $32 531d
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $30 544d
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $32 557d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 565d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.89 · official $72.89 (match) · 113 history records