Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21ec…48a5
sports · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$2,759 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,758 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,002
Realized−$2,758
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses35 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage98d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 1 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$1,312
14 days−$1,312
30 days−$1,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $1,002 $1,002 −$1 (-0%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Cavaliers 65¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,001 +$27 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3,380 −$1,361 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 31 $3 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 28 $26 +$1 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $2,806 −$27 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 25 $10 −$2 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $4,000 −$519 -13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $513 −$32 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 21 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 21 $26 +$2 +7%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1,039 +$8 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $765 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 13 $26 +$4 +17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $94 −$18 -19%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $66 −$65 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $53 +$13 +25%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $168 +$26 +16%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $156 +$43 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 22 $50 +$30 +60%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $255 −$58 -23%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $154 +$37 +24%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $511 +$183 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $3,240 −$219 -7%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 11 $497 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $2,906 −$229 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $3,796 −$98 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $1,960 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 06 $21 +$18 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 06 $235 −$15 -6%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $500 +$26 +5%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $500 +$30 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4? Apr 03 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 03 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 02 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 01 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 01 $55 +$42 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $98 −$60 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$3 +67%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% −$835
finance 26% −$1,660
sports 24% −$14
other 15% −$32
politics 2% +$5
crypto 2% −$223
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1,003 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,001 30h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 44h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 SELL Over 97¢ $120 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 26¢ $815 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 36¢ $119 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 36¢ $2 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 38¢ $1,084 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 52¢ $3,380 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 SELL Over 72¢ $104 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 16d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 54¢ $137 16d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 63¢ $12 16d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 63¢ $18 16d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 63¢ $17 16d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 63¢ $630 16d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 63¢ $23 16d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Up 63¢ $22 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.9% -23.0% 60% 40% -35.6%
≤30d 17 -16.5% -24.4% 53% 18% -21.7%
≤90d 58 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 31% -16.7%
all 64 -8.2% -16.9% 55% 31% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 31% -16.6%
10% -24.9% 20% -24.6%
15% -32.1% 14% -31.9%
20% -38.8% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.63 · official $1,001.63 (match) · 401 history records