Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21eb…a9fd sports 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$668 (-13%) realized −$619 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%56W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$475
sports 17% −$113
world 5% −$19
finance 4% −$35
tech 3% −$14
crypto 2% −$27
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 20% -14.3%
≤30d 44 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 30% -15.0%
≤90d 148 -30.3% -37.0% 32% 25% -25.8%
all 173 -27.9% -34.8% 32% 25% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 25% -21.1%
10% -41.0% 21% -28.7%
15% -46.7% 17% -35.6%
20% -51.9% 16% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$619
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses56 / 117
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)173 / 185
History coverage322d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? No 91¢ 76¢ $64 $54 −$10 (-16%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? No 90¢ 88¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? No 85¢ 12¢ $34 $5 −$29 (-85%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$5 +15%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 16 $33 +$2 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -28%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $76 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 13 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $38 −$5 -14%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +3%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 +$1 +350%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 07 $0 $0 -3%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 6? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +253%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 5? Jun 06 $15 +$5 +30%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +66%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 02 $3 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $4 +$3 +82%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $24 −$3 -12%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $1 −$1 -47%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $54 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $27 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $34 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 88¢ $35 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 8h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 83¢ $33 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $17 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $5 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $25 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $22 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $9 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $22 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 18h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 19h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $37 21h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $37 22h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $15 23h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $23 24h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $38 24h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.77 · official $160.59 (match) · 661 history records