Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21eb…f4dd sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$320 (-12%) realized −$321 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$259
14 days−$236
30 days−$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$596
other 7% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.5% -47.1% 38% 38% -44.5%
≤30d 27 -40.3% -46.0% 37% 37% -45.4%
≤90d 32 -21.4% -28.9% 47% 47% -24.3%
all 32 -21.4% -28.9% 47% 47% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 47% -24.3%
10% -35.7% 44% -31.6%
15% -41.9% 41% -38.2%
20% -47.6% 28% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$80 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized−$321
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage38d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $89 +$36 +40%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $92 −$90 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $90 −$88 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $90 +$81 +90%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 29 $92 −$92 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 29 $89 +$31 +35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 +$23 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $92 +$132 +143%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $46 +$20 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $46 +$9 +19%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $92 +$35 +38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $92 +$81 +88%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $102 +$62 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $102 +$62 +60%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 28 $102 +$83 +81%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $102 +$49 +48%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 28 $103 +$102 +99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 28 $103 +$120 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $89 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 71¢ $89 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $92 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $90 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $90 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $89 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $90 25h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 36¢ $46 13d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $92 13d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $46 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $46 14d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $92 14d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 83¢ $46 15d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 28¢ $23 15d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 70¢ $46 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $46 15d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 23¢ $23 15d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 52¢ $92 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $92 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $92 15d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 52¢ $46 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $92 16d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $92 16d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $92 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 71¢ $92 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 61¢ $102 31d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Toronto KOI 73¢ $102 31d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 65¢ $102 31d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Nuno Borges 38¢ $103 31d
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria BUY Jaime Faria 61¢ $102 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.75 · official $379.75 (match) · 62 history records