Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21e8…b85e sports 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,632 (+7%) realized +$13,589 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%79W / 58L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1,397per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1,685est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,240
7 days+$1,999
14 days+$122
30 days+$1,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$9,637
other 17% +$3,121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 52% -6.3%
≤30d 60 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 53% -7.6%
≤90d 103 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 55% -8.9%
all 137 +3.4% -6.5% 58% 58% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 58% -3.5%
10% -15.4% 56% -12.7%
15% -23.6% 50% -21.2%
20% -31.1% 38% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,111 vs −$1,294 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$4,043
Realized+$13,589
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses79 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,685
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,397
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 61¢ $2,000 $1,937 −$63 (-3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $1,000 $1,189 +$189 (+19%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $1,000 $917 −$83 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,422 −$1,416 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2,029 +$1,888 +93%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $2,023 +$1,200 +59%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,362 −$3,300 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,034 +$1,800 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $814 −$800 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,008 +$326 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 20 $606 −$600 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,333 +$2,069 +89%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,216 +$927 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,130 −$2,100 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,541 −$2,500 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,046 +$3,077 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,542 −$2,500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2,028 +$1,689 +83%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,624 +$1,573 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,063 +$4,350 +107%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$503 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,547 +$2,823 +80%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $712 −$700 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $1,018 +$1,497 +147%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $304 −$15 -5%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,015 −$69 -7%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,034 −$2,000 -98%
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1,012 +$660 +65%
IK Oddevold vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,128 +$1,689 +79%
Will IK Oddevold win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,522 +$1,388 +91%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $511 −$500 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $774 +$993 +128%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 06 $1,008 +$348 +34%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $606 +$270 +45%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $708 +$393 +56%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $506 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,918 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 48¢ $1,422 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1,517 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,029 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $3,222 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $611 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $204 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $2,038 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $509 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,834 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 62¢ $2,023 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $814 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3,034 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,008 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,012 26h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 66¢ $606 33h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 33h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 56¢ $1,216 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,130 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,493 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,010 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2,541 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $1,010 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,333 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,010 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2,025 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,043.28 · official $4,075.03 (match) · 268 history records