Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21e7…ca91 crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$457 (-6%) realized −$432 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%135W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$33
14 days−$97
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$5
other 29% −$148
politics 20% −$231
sports 11% −$202
world 5% −$5
culture 1% −$12
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +5.8% -4.3% 67% 41% -6.8%
≤30d 202 +0.9% -8.7% 59% 33% -12.8%
≤90d 241 -2.6% -11.8% 56% 32% -15.7%
all 241 -2.6% -11.8% 56% 32% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 32% -15.7%
10% -20.3% 27% -23.8%
15% -28.0% 22% -31.2%
20% -35.0% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$432
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses135 / 106
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)241 / 243
History coverage64d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $9 −$24 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $34 −$6 -17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $35 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$21 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$28 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$29 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$19 +97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
HYPE Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +92%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$15 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $49 −$32 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$28 +190%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +40%
HYPE Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$15 +101%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bay Area Breakers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 12 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 12 $47 +$4 +9%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $52 −$6 -12%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $43 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 25h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $19 2d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 2d
HYPE Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $19 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $14 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $42 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.35 · official $100.35 (match) · 600 history records