Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21e7…4041 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$200 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$151
other 11% +$15
sports 5% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 50% +4.9%
≤90d 16 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 50% +4.9%
all 16 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 50% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 50% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 44% -5.1%
15% -22.2% 25% -14.3%
20% -29.9% 25% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$52 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 21¢ 12¢ $125 $76 −$49 (-39%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $22 −$9 (-29%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-42%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 2¢ $101 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$12 -11%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $103 +$34 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $368 +$305 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $105 +$28 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $109 −$40 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $211 −$100 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $209 +$111 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $106 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $105 +$62 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$31 +302%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $29 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $93 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 13m
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 15m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 16m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 16m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 14¢ $136 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $11 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $16 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $47 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $57 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $341 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $57 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $171 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $133 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.62 · official $186.01 · 63 history records