Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21e6…02f8 crypto 98 markets active 4h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$436 (-5%) realized −$436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%36W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day63.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$646
7 days+$1,576
14 days+$1,289
30 days+$1,289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,501
sports 4% −$188
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% +9.5%
≤30d 98 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 37% +3.1%
≤90d 98 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 37% +3.1%
all 98 -9.9% -18.5% 37% 37% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 37% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 37% -6.8%
15% -33.4% 37% -15.8%
20% -39.9% 35% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$73 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses36 / 62
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage13d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day63.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,467 +$1,913 +130%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $902 −$902 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $131 +$79 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $159 +$108 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$48 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $277 +$300 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$26 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$17 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $143 +$122 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $205 +$111 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $75 +$61 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $233 +$843 +362%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $157 +$334 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$41 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $122 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $141 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $141 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $143 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $141 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $133 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $133 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 940 history records