Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21e6…5204 crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate83%62W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$31
14 days+$56
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 75 -3.9% -13.1% 83% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 75 -3.9% -13.1% 83% 9% -9.4%
all 75 -3.9% -13.1% 83% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 9% -9.4%
10% -21.4% 5% -18.1%
15% -29.0% 4% -26.0%
20% -36.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses62 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage17d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 97¢ 96¢ $215 $215 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $213 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $211 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $207 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $203 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $193 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $186 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $369 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $179 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $174 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $173 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $169 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $338 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $166 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $330 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $162 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $160 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $157 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $466 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $153 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 07 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $216 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $216 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $215 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $215 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $214 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 97¢ $214 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $213 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $213 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $211 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $211 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $207 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $207 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $206 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $206 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $203 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $203 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $201 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $202 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $193 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $186 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $186 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $185 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $184 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $184 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $184 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $180 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $179 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $174 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.74 · official $214.85 (match) · 193 history records