Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21e2…2833 crypto 1233 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,264 (+11%) realized +$2,265 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%623W / 552L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$41
14 days+$63
30 days+$1,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 53% -7.0%
≤30d 713 +1.6% -8.1% 53% 53% +5.1%
≤90d 1175 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% +1.0%
all 1175 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 53% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 53% -8.6%
15% -25.7% 53% -17.5%
20% -32.9% 53% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$2,265
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses623 / 552
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1175 / 1233
History coverage65d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Down 52¢ 51¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $106 +$96 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$5 +88%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$30 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$18 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$11 +85%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$24 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$7 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$48 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $54 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $40 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $53 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.38 · official $54.38 (match) · 2463 history records