Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21dd…e4f5 sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+7%) realized +$125 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%58W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$161
14 days+$161
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$101
other 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +28.3% +16.0% 56% 56% +2.7%
≤30d 89 +26.8% +14.7% 55% 55% +2.0%
≤90d 100 +24.4% +12.6% 58% 55% -1.5%
all 100 +24.4% +12.6% 58% 55% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 55% -1.5%
10% +1.8% 47% -11.0%
15% -8.0% 35% -19.6%
20% -17.0% 26% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses58 / 42
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions13
Markets (closed)100 / 113
History coverage46d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage ex-RUBY 71¢ 60¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-15%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 65¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+54%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $29 +$8 +26%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1290%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$17 +75%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $38 +$10 +26%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $24 +$28 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 +$12 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $28 +$21 +76%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $13 +$3 +21%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$1 +21%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$7 +276%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$2 +27%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$41 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $44 +$18 +42%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$2 +16%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$6 +33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $64 +$32 +50%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $11 −$4 -38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$8 +56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$15 +66%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$9 +50%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$28 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 81¢ $7 17m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 81¢ $7 17m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 81¢ $7 18m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $18 36m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 36m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 37m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 37m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 38m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 65¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 65¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 65¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 30¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 30¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 65¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 65¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $35 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $8 16h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $23 17h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 78¢ $6 17h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $6 17h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 78¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 67¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $4 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $8 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $8 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 29¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 29¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.07 · official $155.13 (match) · 430 history records