Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21db…0c60 world 37 markets active 3h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$6
politics 16% $0
other 16% −$1
sports 10% $0
culture 10% +$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 14% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 11 -2.1% -11.5% 9% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 11 -2.1% -11.5% 9% 0% -11.2%
all 37 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage269d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 19 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $3 $0 +19%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 04 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $32 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $33 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $33 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $12 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $19 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $10 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $29 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $40 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 254d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records