Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21da…2770 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-5%) realized −$23 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day131.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$11
sports 36% −$26
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 21% -16.9%
≤30d 33 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 21% -16.9%
≤90d 33 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 21% -16.9%
all 33 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 21% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 21% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 18% -24.9%
15% -36.0% 6% -32.1%
20% -42.3% 3% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day131.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 46¢ 68¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 56¢ 32¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 21 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $30 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Martina Trevisan vs Taylor Townsend Jun 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $80 −$26 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.23 · official $10.18 (match) · 142 history records