Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21d9…95b5 crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate68%71W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$121
other 19% −$52
sports 15% −$100
finance 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +13.3% +2.5% 86% 45% +4.5%
≤30d 43 +13.0% +2.2% 86% 44% +4.2%
≤90d 50 +8.3% -2.0% 84% 40% +1.6%
all 105 +13.8% +3.0% 68% 30% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 30% -12.8%
10% -6.9% 24% -21.2%
15% -15.9% 15% -28.8%
20% -24.1% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses71 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage327d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $22 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $56 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $74 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $78 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$41 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$11 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$9 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Apr 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 08 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records