Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21d6…fc47 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 34% +$4
politics 8% −$1
finance 5% $0
sports 3% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 5% -9.1%
all 37 -0.8% -10.3% 46% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -8.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage482d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $32 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $19 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 06 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $3 $0 +6%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $17 $0 -1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 25 $2 −$1 -56%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 24 $21 $0 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 21 $1 $0 -16%
Will the price of gas be 3.15 on February 28? Mar 21 $18 +$3 +19%
Will Williams record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Feb 27 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $12 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $20 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $33 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $8 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $21 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $29 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $28 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $28 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $19 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $3 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records