Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21d5…6f93 crypto 1325 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$439 (-5%) realized −$90 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate86%1127W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days−$190
14 days−$177
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$88
tech 13% +$88
other 4% −$110
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 462 -10.4% -19.0% 75% 24% -14.5%
≤30d 1131 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 16% -10.7%
≤90d 1314 +1.7% -8.0% 86% 19% -10.7%
all 1314 +1.7% -8.0% 86% 19% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 19% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 12% -19.2%
15% -24.8% 7% -27.0%
20% -32.2% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1127 / 187
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1314 / 1325
History coverage55d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 49¢ 30¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 58¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 70¢ 40¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will ByteDance have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will ByteDance have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 7m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 14m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.09 · official $243.84 (match) · 3500 history records