Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21d5…6afc crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-22%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%32W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$80
world 18% −$22
other 16% +$3
politics 12% +$2
crypto 8% −$29
economics 1% −$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -62.7% -66.2% 14% 14% -71.9%
≤30d 43 -18.8% -26.6% 35% 33% -30.7%
≤90d 86 -13.7% -21.9% 37% 31% -32.0%
all 86 -13.7% -21.9% 37% 31% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 31% -32.0%
10% -29.4% 27% -38.5%
15% -36.2% 22% -44.4%
20% -42.4% 22% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses32 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage55d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 −$3 -64%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? May 30 $6 +$4 +58%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 30 $1 $0 -7%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 30 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 30 $5 −$2 -31%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 +$2 +174%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? May 30 $4 $0 +6%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? May 30 $2 +$2 +62%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $6 +$14 +219%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 24 $2 +$2 +102%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E May 24 $8 +$1 +11%
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? May 22 $3 +$2 +66%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 21 $2 +$2 +76%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $4 −$2 -49%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 20 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 18 $2 +$3 +150%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $10 +$14 +151%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 14 $1 +$1 +129%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? May 14 $3 +$1 +16%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? May 14 $4 $0 -7%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $2 −$1 -78%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $8 $0 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 13 $8 −$3 -36%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 13 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records