Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21d2…b79e other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-42%) realized −$314 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$33
14 days−$32
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$287
tech 7% +$2
finance 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -62.3% -65.9% 18% 18% -52.0%
≤30d 23 -37.9% -43.8% 30% 26% -31.9%
≤90d 35 -32.6% -39.0% 31% 29% -52.4%
all 35 -32.6% -39.0% 31% 29% -52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 29% -52.4%
10% -44.8% 23% -57.0%
15% -50.2% 20% -61.1%
20% -55.1% 11% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$314
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions11
Markets (closed)35 / 46
History coverage43d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 76¢ 66¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 75¢ 30¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Elon post "Neuralink" on X this week? Yes 70¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +41%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $21 −$13 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -92%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $5 +$2 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $9 −$8 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 +$16 +304%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $21 −$7 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $26 −$10 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $180 −$176 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $16 +$13 +77%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $15 +$10 +66%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? May 10 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $20 −$19 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 8h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 8h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $61 15h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 16h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16h
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 16h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 16h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Elon post "Neuralink" on X this week? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 27h
Another Elon baby by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $10 31h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.70 · official $43.70 (match) · 112 history records