Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21d0…e8d7
crypto · 467 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,627 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,619 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$177
Realized+$7,619
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses243 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)462 / 467
History coverage1d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day3030.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 462 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,619
7 days+$7,619
14 days+$7,619
30 days+$7,619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 50¢ 42¢ $62 $51 −$10 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 47¢ 58¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Down 51¢ 90¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+76%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 53¢ 62¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 44¢ 60¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Up 49¢ 10¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $57 +$13 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$25 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$24 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$16 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$15 +106%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $116 +$54 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $134 −$38 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$18 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $269 −$207 -77%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$11 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$33 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$22 -69%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$26 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$70 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $160 −$50 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$20 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$22 -91%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$25 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $81 −$63 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$28 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $199 −$79 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$7,627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 462 +10.0% -0.5% 53% 50% +8.7%
≤30d 462 +10.0% -0.5% 53% 50% +8.7%
≤90d 462 +10.0% -0.5% 53% 50% +8.7%
all 462 +10.0% -0.5% 53% 50% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3030.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 50% +8.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 48% -1.7%
15% -18.7% 46% -11.2%
20% -26.7% 43% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.62 · official $175.97 (match) · 3500 history records